Ali Abdullah Saleh’s death may intensify Yemen’s three-year civil war

Former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh was killed on December 4 as his forces battled with the Houthis, who are members of the Zaydi branch of Shiite Islam, for control of Sana’a, the capital. His death may intensify fighting between Houthis and Mr Saleh’s tribal loyalists.

Mr Saleh ruled Yemen with an iron grip for 33 years before being forced to step down in 2012 as part of popular uprisings against entrenched Middle East leaders. The Gulf states replaced him with his vice-president, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The Houthis, who felt marginalised by the government, seized control of Sana’a in 2015. The government of Mr Hadi was forced into exile.

At Mr Hadi’s request, Saudi Arabia committed its air force to defeating the Houthis in March 2015. The US supported the Saudi-led coalition with assistance, including refuelling planes carrying out airstrikes and sharing intelligence. Mr Saleh joined forces with the Houthis two years ago to fight against the Saudi-backed government as he spotted an opportunity for a comeback.

The Saudi-led military campaign was designed to reinstate Mr Hadi’s government. Saudi forces, however, have proved ineffectual. The coalition has retaken swaths of southern Yemen, but it has failed to dislodge the Houthis from Sana’s and the more populous, northern highlands.

It was Mr Saleh’s decision to end his three-year partnership with the Houthis that triggered clashes between his forces and his former allies in the capital. Before he was killed, Mr Saleh called for the turning of a new page with the Saudi-led coalition. The statement suggested he was shifting his allegiance. The fracturing of the Saleh-Houthi alliance was welcomed by the Saudis.

The conflict in Yemen, the Arab world’s poorest state, has become a proxy war between Saudi Arabia, its Gulf ally, the United Arab Emirates (the largest foreign force on the ground), and Shia Iran, which are locked in a struggle for regional dominance that has spilled over into Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The kingdom accused Tehran of an act of war for allegedly supplying a ballistic missile fired at the international airport in Riyadh last month. Iran has denied the claim.

The war in Yemen has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters in decades, which would worsen unless the Saudi-led coalition lifts its partial blockade of Yemen’s Red Sea ports. Nearly two-thirds of the country’s 28 million population depend on emergency relief. Seven million Yemenis are on the brink of starvation. Since fighting began Yemen has suffered the biggest cholera outbreak in modern history. Without a broader agreement between Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran, there will be no peace in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians, hospitals, schools, markets and mosques. It is estimated that at least 10,000 people have been killed in the war.

Photo: Rod Waddington

WPJ

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