North Korea launched a missile on Saturday morning local time, but the test ended in failure. A Stalinist state is President Donald Trump’s major foreign policy test as it poses an immediate danger to the region’s stability and edges closer to being able to reach America’s west coast with a nuclear-tipped missile. Rex Tillerson, US secretary of state, has called for more painful international sanctions against Pyongyang to curb its nuclear ambitions.
North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests, including two last year (it carried out its first nuclear test in 2006). Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator, is willing to push ahead with the nuclear programme, despite threats from Mr Trump and warnings from China, Pyongyang’s long-time ally. The third Kim on the throne views nuclear weapons as essential to the dynasty’s survival and gaining the respect from the outside world.
The US dispatched an aircraft carrier to waters near the Korean peninsula in a show of force, days after it launched missile strikes against Syria in retaliation for the Assad government’s use of chemical weapons on a rebel-held town in norther Syria that killed more than 80 people. Mike Pence, US vice-president, said last week that North Korea should not test Mr Trump’s resolve and the strength of the US military, alluding to US missile strikes against the Assad regime in Syria.
Washington wants North Korea to give up its nuclear and missile programmes. Mr Trump has warned that the US would act unilaterally if necessary. Given that North Korea’s primary concern is security, Mr Kim may freeze the nuclear programme, if the Trump administration provides guarantees that it will not seek to overthrow his repugnant regime.
At the moment, Washington leans on Beijing to apply pressure on Pyongyang, but all options are on the table. The problem is that North Korea is not Syria, which has no ability to respond. US military strikes to take out North Korea’s missile capacity and prevent another nuclear test would leave South Korea particularly vulnerable to retaliation. Second, it is highly unlikely that the US would be able to eliminate the North Korean nuclear programme in one swoop, without collaboration with China, because it is possibly hidden deep underground and widely dispersed.
North Korea can easily attack Seoul with its formidable artillery. South Korea’s capital has a population of 20 million and is located only 60 kilometres from the demilitarised zone. It is estimated that 1 million South Koreans could die in retaliatory strikes and that a new Korean war could cause 1 trillion dollars in damage. Bill Clinton came close to authorising air strikes against North Korea’s nuclear facilities in 1994, but pulled back, because a pre-emptive strike could trigger a war on the Korean peninsula.
Mr Trump, therefore, should consult with Seoul before taking any military option to deal with Pyongyang, not marginalise and exclude the South from talks on the North Korean issue as he does at present. Mr Trump called China and Japan on April 24 to discuss a nuclear threat North Korea poses, but did not call South Korea’s acting president, Hwang Kyo-ahn, who has been in the role since December when parliament voted to impeach former deeply unpopular president Park Geun-hye.
The deployment of the US-owned and operated anti-missile defence system – known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defence, or THAAD – on South Korean soil to counter North Korea’s arsenal of short-range to medium range missiles is necessary until Pyongyang has frozen its nuclear programme, despite fierce opposition from Beijing, which views it as a threat to its own ballistic missiles as THAAD reduces their potency as a deterrent (China’s complain is focused on THAAD’s radar system that can collect data on Chinese missile forces).
Washington is putting pressure on China, which accounts for 90 per cent of North Korea’s international trade, to use its economic and trade ties to rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Mr Trump has suggested that he would adopt a softer stance on trade in return for Beijing’s co-operation on North Korea.
China, which officially wants the Korean peninsula to be free of nuclear weapons, complies with UN economic sanctions on selected North Korean exports, showing its increased willingness to cooperate with America. China suspended its purchases of North Korean coal in February for the rest of the year (the Kim regime depends on coal exports for much of its foreign currency). Beijing, however, worries that too much pressure on its neighbour could cripple the North Korean economy and trigger a flood of refugees crossing the Chinese border. Chinese leaders also fear that the collapse of the Kim regime could eventually lead to German-style unification with South Korea, falling under America’s nuclear umbrella and with US troops staying on the Chinese border. China views America as its chief strategic competitor in the region and North Korea as a valuable buffer against the US army deployed in the South.
China’s influence over Kim Jong-un’s regime, however, is overestimated. Despite warnings and pressure, Mr Kim is determined to rule in his own way.
U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Sean M. Castellano/Released
