In his recent speech to welcome the New Year, Kim Jong Un commented that he has a nuclear button on his desk, and is willing to use it. The response from US President Donald Trump was that he also is in possession of a nuclear button that is even bigger.
The size of the device to launch the missiles, or the actual size of the arsenal is of little consequence. What is of more immediate importance is if either leader is willing to use them? If Kim launches a strike against the US or South Korea, and Japan for that matter, his nation of 25 million would suffer unspeakable destruction. The US, and its allies, would see its reaction met with the threat of a wider regional war that could draw in China or even Russia.
During the presidential campaign, Trump promoted himself as a negotiator and a dealmaker. This has served him well in the business world and somewhat as president. His threats to annihilate the very thing he wants brought Canada and Mexico to the table to discuss changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Mr Kim may see Trump’s threats as hollow, or he might follow the thinking of some in the US who say Trump is unstable, and thus pull back a bit from the brink.
Mr Trump came into office unbound by the fetters of diplomatic niceties. This New Yorker has a brash style that is not easy for world leaders to plan around. He seems to care little about international approval, but instead preferring personal ties with world leaders. These developing friendships with world leaders could come under severe strain if the US president pushes North Korea into a corner it cannot see a way out of.
Mr Trump may never use his bigger nuclear button. However, he wants leaders such as Kim to understand that he has the will to do so. His sending of the 7th fleet to the Sea of Japan in April 2017 was a signal to North Korea that he will not be anything like his predecessor. Perhaps Trump taking a different stand has possibly caused the North Korean dictator to take a step back from the standoff. North Korea has offered to send a team of figure skaters, Kim Ju-Sik and Ryom Tae-Ok, to the upcoming 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. This gesture should not, however, be seen as a sign the North is starting to thaw its relations with South Korea or the US. Nor should it be seen as caving to US pressure.
Unpredictable is a word that comes more to mind when attempting to understand the so-called Hermit Kingdom. The shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in the South on November 23, 2010, was carried out by the North simply because it thought the South Korean Navy had crossed its maritime border while conducting military exercises. Gordon Chang, an American commentator on East Asian affairs, claims that China has recently supplied North Korea with military equipment and technology to aid its ballistic missile program. If this is the case, Donald Trump would have to publicly reprimand China for its contribution to the escalation of this crisis.
Mr Trump must take much into consideration when deciding possible solutions to what he believes is an immediate concern for his administration. A wrong move or miscalculation on either side could be a bridge too far for more than just the US and North Korea. China has always advocated direct negotiations between the the American and North Korean sides. It seems that the Trump administration has now begun this process. The six party talks of the George W. Bush administration yielded little from the North. It is imperative that Mr Trump keeps his finger off of the button and his eye on the ball to prevent conflict.
(Official White House Photo by D. Myles Cullen)
