Turks vote in a referendum on constitutional changes that would give president Recep Tayyip Erdogan sweeping executive powers. This month’s polls showed a thin margin in favour of “yes”, but the result isn’t a foregone conclusion.
Mr Erdogan has led Turkey since 2003, first as reformist prime minister and then as the country’s first elected president after 2014. He has taken steps to transform a largely ceremonial post into the nation’s main seat of power.
Under the state of emergency imposed in the wake of last year’s failed coup, Mr Erdogan has jailed more than 50,000 people, including academics, teachers, opposition politicians, judges and journalists, alongside suspected plotters. He has also sacked more than 100,000 civil servants, accusing them of being sympathisers to his former ally Fethullah Gulen, a shadowy Islamic cleric living in self-imposed exile in America, who is blamed by Mr Erdogan for orchestrating a coup attempt. Authorities have sized almost 600 companies, worth about $10 billion, for they alleged support of the Gulen movement.
The president’s crackdown on political opponents and media has damaged Turkey’s relations with the European Union. When the Netherlands and Germany refused Turkish ministers to campaign for a “yes” on their territory to attract Turkish diaspora votes, Mr Erdogan accused the Dutch and German governments of Nazi-style practices.
Mr Erdogan argues that the strong executive presidency is necessary to create political stability, allowing the government to focus on long-delayed economic reforms and fight jihadists and Kurdish separatists, who are waging campaigns against the state. He says that the country’s parliamentary system often leads to weak coalitions unable to make big decisions.
A “yes” vote would establish a one-man rule, eliminating remaining, though ineffective, checks and balances. It would abolish the office of prime minister, allow the president to prepare budgets and appoint ministers and some judges. It would also remove the requirement for presidential neutrality, allowing Mr Erdogan to immediately reinstate his ties with the ruling Islamist-rooted Justice and Development party (AKP). Resuming the leadership of the AKP would give him the power to handpick parliamentary candidates. Mr Erdogan would have the power to dissolve parliament on any grounds.
Parliament would have limited oversight over the executive branch. The president would be authorised to issue decrees with the force of laws and declare the state of emergency, restricting basic rights and freedoms.
If the “yes” vote succeeds, Mr Erdogan could potentially stay in office until at least 2029, enjoying more powers than any Turkish leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who forged modern Turkey from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire.
If the “no” camp prevails, Mr Erdogan’s cherished proposal for a presidential system similar to that in Vladimir Putin’s Russia is unlikely to be shelved. Mr Erdogan, however, will almost certainly seek another referendum at a later time.
The vote comes amid political and economic turmoil. Growth has slowed, while unemployment has climbed to a seven-year high amid weak investor and consumer confidence. The economy contracted in the third quarter of 2016 for the first time in seven years, but rebounded in the fourth quarter, recording year-on-year growth of 3.5 per cent. GDP expanded 2.9 per cent in 2016, half the rate in the early 2000s. The annual inflation rate hit 11.3 per cent in March, the highest level since 2008, and more than double the central bank’s target. The government is battling separatist Kurdish groups in the largely Kurdish southeast and Islamic State militants in neighbouring Syria.
The vote in favour of constitutional amendments is expected to boost markets, at least in the short term, as Mr Erdogan’s role is formalised and status quo maintained. The “no” vote is likely to result in political uncertainty, weighing on the lira and other assets.
Photo: Navid Linnemann
